CAS  Trends in the growth rates of new infections and new cases. McKay MD, Beckman RJ, Conover WJ. BMC Public Health. First, we chose to develop a discrete dynamical model such that the adequate contact rate, which is the only parameter to be estimated in the model, also has a discrete distribution over time. Our model does not cover all situations that manifest in reality. For example, Li XX et al. The adequate contact rate has been increasing since 2010, with an average annual increase of 11.8%. Second, the adequate contact rate over time was obtained by fitting the model output, the number of newly diagnosed cases in each month, to official published data (Fig. dh is positively correlated with the infection rate because as the number of spontaneous recovery individuals increases, the number of individuals in state E increases. Raw data. Raw data that are essential for calculation of the model from the year of 2004 to 2015 are publicly available. 1. PubMed  After that, the number of patients continues to decrease and then reaches its lowest level at the end of the year. The prevalence continued to decrease from 336/100,000 at the beginning of 2004 to 175/100,000 at the end of 2015, with an average annual drop of 5.3%. MDR-TB and non-MDR-TB should be distinguished throughout all stages because both forms of tuberculosis are found among infected individuals and patients. Hu T, Sun WJ. c The number of infectious patients over time. We therefore assumed that the infectious period conforms to three common distributions: the Gamma distribution, the Weibull distribution, and the log-normal distribution [19]. Legend: a Trends in the growth rate of new infections. In: Ye RG, Lu ZY, editors. Manage cookies/Do not sell my data we use in the preference centre. Most patients seek treatment within a time interval near the average infectious period. Therefore, we should focus on strengthening prevention and control in autumn and winter, and the government should increase publicity and education on pulmonary tuberculosis in this season, strengthen management measures, and encourage the public to pay attention to personal protection. 1999;3:414–20. Marino S, Hogue IB, Ray CJ, Kirschner DE. Our study is of great significance because it provides a deeper understanding of the epidemiological characteristics and can help in developing more effective prevention and control policies. In this study, sensitivity analyses were conducted with 16 parameters and a continuous time series for the population infection rate each month. The parameters enable a mathematical representation of the different stages in the natural development of the disease: the risk to be infected; the risk of becoming ill; and the development of the illness. The peak in the adequate contact rate was observed in November, indicating that pulmonary tuberculosis is most contagious in autumn and winter. When a National TB Programme (NTP) is functioning well, indicators from the local authorities and NTP can be obtained. Accessed 22 Mar 2018. After all the parameters are generated, they are incorporated into equation a1, and a set of values for the adequate contact rate is obtained by fitting the model output to the original data. The Fifth National Survey of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Epidemiology conducted in 2010 did not include people under the age of 15 years. 2013;7:354–66. Some of the patients whose symptoms resolve will be cured (i.e., the M. tuberculosis bacteria in the body are completely eradicated), and these patients convert to state S. The other patients in whom M. tuberculosis is not completely eliminated due to intermittent adherence to treatment or inability to complete the entire course of chemotherapy transition to state E. In this study, we distinguished between MDR-TB and non-MDR-TB when analyzing treatment processes and outcomes. 119, South 4th Ring Road West, Fengtai District, Beijing, China, You can also search for this author in 2002;25:3–7. If not, the WHO developed a TB country profile sheet for each country1 – HIV positivity rate among all TB patientsProportion of HIV positive patients among all TB patients diagnosed during a given period of time. Since 2004, pulmonary tuberculosis has been consistently ranked as having the highest number of newly diagnosed patients among all respiratory infectious diseases listed in the statutory notification system of infectious diseases in China [2]. The program of tuberculosis control has been pushed on consequently from the very beginning; all indices of tuberculosis epidemiology (annual infection rate, incidence and prevalence of morbidity, mortality) have favourably developed. The study was supported by National Science and Technology Major Project (2018ZX10713003); 2. The latter two values reflect the severity of the pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic in real time and are important criteria for measuring prevalence. 2013;8:e68102. The indicators used in the struggle against tuberculosis, particularly in developing countries, can be separated into two groups. Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review. Chemotherapy The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. Liu X. The technical guidance group of the fifth national tuberculosis epidemiological sampling survey. Since newborns are susceptible to tuberculosis, newborns in all populations are born in state S. The state Ia includes two kinds of patients: those from state E who experience disease onset due to the recurrence of latent M. tuberculosis triggered by reduced immunity and those who transition from state E after interaction with individuals in state Ia and re-exposure to M. tuberculosis [14].

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